I have to hand it to Nikki Haley; she is persistent. Despite not winning in the polls or state caucuses and primaries so far, she’s still determined that she can beat Donald Trump and win the GOP nomination.
But it’s becoming abundantly clear she’s also a bit delusional.
As you well know by now, Haley came in a distant second to Trump in the Iowa caucuses. Then, the same thing happened in New Hampshire despite her supposedly polling better there than any other early primary state.
Looking at polling New Hampshire, a state with a strong independent streak, as in they literally have a lot of residents voting as independents, it seems Haley had a chance. At least more so than in any other polling thus far. Many even thought this would actually put her on the map, so to speak, and offer her a real chance at success against Trump.
But that’s not what happened.
To be sure, votes for her weren’t abysmally low. As of early Wednesday, with 91 percent of the vote in, she had amassed about 43.1 percent of the vote, according to The New York Times.
But that still didn’t hold a candle to Trump’s 54.6 percent. Again, this was with 91 percent of the votes counted. So the actual numbers ended up being slightly higher for both, but with about the same margin of difference.
Trump was clearly the winner, with an 11-point victory over Haley.
Naturally, her recent loss has given more than a few people reason to believe she should go ahead and bow out with grace and dignity.
But she is refusing to do so.
As she told NBC News, “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go, and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.”
She does have a point; there are still dozens more primaries to go. And up next is her home state, a state she was once governor of. The latter would lead many to assume that she would do well in the Palmetto State.
But she actually did better in New Hampshire polling, according to RealClearPolitics aggregates. Another thing worth noting is that South Carolina as an “open primary,” meaning anyone of any party association can vote in any party primary. Hell, the state doesn’t even recognize party affiliation, according to Ballotpedia.
South Carolina is also more conservative than New Hampshire, meaning that Haley’s links to the establishment might not be as appreciated as they were in the Granite State.
And yet, Haley’s campaign has voiced the idea that “Trump finally feels beatable.”
But looking more closely at New Hampshire’s exit polls tells a different story.
In New Hampshire, exit polls found that 51 percent of primary voters were Republicans. Democrats made up a mere 6 percent, and independents made up 43 percent.
Overwhelmingly, most independents and Democrats (combined made up 49 percent of voters) cast a ballot for Haley.
Per the exit poll, breakdown of NH GOP primary vote by party ID:
Republican: Trump 74-25%
Independent: Haley 61-37%
Democrat: Haley 84-6%— Steve Kornacki (@SteveKornacki) January 24, 2024
And yet, she still lost big.
Why? Because Republicans preferred Trump by 74 to 25 percent.
So yeah, she might be somewhat popular. But it’s not among Republicans, who, as I mentioned before, are a bit more prevalent in her home state.
Therefore, her “sweet” South Carolina might not end up being all that sweet to her come February 24.
And it’s even more of a reason why Haley’s chances are diminishing, not growing.
